In June 2007, the United Nations Climate Change Panel published the three-part UN Climate Report, which had involved some 2,500 researchers from 124 countries over the years. Among other things, it is based on around 40 computer simulations. For the first time, people agreed on a formulation according to which humans are to blame for climate change (which is still contested in some places to this day). The highly developed countries are responsible for global warming and the export of the effects. The main causes are rapid population growth, increasing consumption of fossil fuels, deforestation of forests and urbanization.
By relentless burning of fossil fuels such as gasoline, oil or coal, huge amounts of additional, so-called greenhouse effect causing carbon dioxide. In many regions of the world there has been a decrease in the last few decades Frost days and an increase in days with extremely high temperatures observed. This was particularly the case in Central and Northern Europe, the USA, Canada, China, Australia and New Zealand. In the middle and northern latitudes, especially the northern hemisphere, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly in the second half of the 20th century. By contrast, in some regions of Africa and Asia, there are increasingly stronger ones drought, as well as desertifications.
Since industrialization, the average temperature has risen by +0.7 to +0.8 ° Celsius, with +0.6 ° C alone accounting for the past 30 years. Earth temperatures are likely to rise twice as fast as the last century by the year 2100. Eleven of the past twelve years were among the 12 warmest since records began in 1850. At best, the Earth's surface warms by 1.1-2.9 degrees by the year 2100, in the worst case the temperature increases by 2, 4 to 6.4 degrees. As average warming, a temperature increase of 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius is predicted. For the cheapest scenario, a sea level rise of 18 to 38 centimeters was calculated. In the worst case, it could rise by up to 59 centimeters. There are increasing floods, crop failures and hurricanes. About one fifth of the animal and plant species are threatened with extinction.
The climate has a significant influence on the vines and the wine quality. That is why climate change naturally has an impact on the climate viniculture although, according to recent research on grapevine, these are considered lower than other crops. Records of climate change and viticulture related data such as Vintage times. yield and quality of vintages has existed in Europe for over a thousand years. In this period, there were always fluctuations and exceptional conditions such as the Medieval warm period (900-1300) with average higher and the so-called Little ice age (1450-1850) with average lower temperatures. However, the causes and effects of today's climate change are far more dramatic, sustainable and faster. In the past, the great climatic changes were caused by natural phenomena such as global warming or cooling (ice ages) and very slowly over many millennia. The current situation, on the other hand, is a reaction to man-made circumstances and proceeds at a frightening pace.
Dr. Edgar Müller from the DLR Rheinhessen-Nahe-Hunsrück is a profound expert on the subject and has authored many documentaries on the topic. At the DLR location Bad Kreuznach (Production area Near) are precise records for each a Riesling and a Müller-Thurgau plot since 1959 before. This was detailed phenological Data like expulsion. blossom. veraison and Vintage start detected. One of the findings is that during the period 1959 to 2006 the number of summer days (> 25 ° C) and hot days (> 30 ° C) has risen dramatically. The average annual temperature rose by 1.0 ° Celsius. A large temperature surge can be seen especially from the late 1980s. In Southwest Germany, the following changes are expected by 2050, although this probably also applies to other Central European wine regions:
On the basis of this, changes of different proportions are to be expected. These are shorter growth intervals, stronger vegetation with more deciduous area, higher water consumption or the necessary artificial irrigation, fluctuating yields, increased pest infestation and vine diseases and thus decreasing grape quality. Due to dry summers, a higher number of generations can occur in the Grape berry moth and other pest insects, as well as more problems with bacteria. phytoplasmas and virus result. The impact on wine quality is negative in the wine-growing areas concerned. The white wines will have more alcohol and less acid due to earlier maturity. This will be a problem especially for Riesling, which ripens late today, but also for early, low-acid varieties.
The frequency of UTA (atypical age tone) and fermentation disorders will increase. This has a negative impact on the aroma paired with phenolic Grades. In addition, results in a lower aging potential, So far, only in warm areas rampant diseases such as Pierce Disease could then also occur in Europe. The viticulture is bez. Weingarten Care and winemaking have to change or adapt. Affected are the varieties, the choice of documents, the fertilization, the training system, in the context of the pruning, the question of greening, the plant protection And last but not least, certainly the wine styles,
High-quality viticulture is possible in only one narrow geographical band, the so-called vine belts from 40th to 50th north and 30th to 40th south latitude (see also under Rebstock ). The northern hemisphere, equatorial and inland wine regions are more affected by climate change than those in the southern hemisphere, at high altitudes or near the coast. However, there will be consequences globally for all winegrowing areas in varying degrees. So far dry and hot regions will probably have to contend with even bigger problems. In Australia and California a sharp decline in precipitation is to be expected. Parts of southern Europe could become too hot for quality winegrowing. In the Champagne and in Bordeaux again, improvements due to improved grape ripeness are likely.
Better and new perspectives open up for the previous climatic border locations. The vineyards will expand in the direction of the poles. In Europe are Denmark. England. Croatia. Netherlands. Poland. Sweden and Ukraine Candidates. Outside of Europe Argentina. Australia (Parts) China (North), Chile and New Zealand, The British wine merchant Berry Bros & Rudd sees in a study published in late May 2008 China in 50 years as the most important wine country in the world. Not only in terms of quantity will the Middle Kingdom become the most important wine-growing nation, but in terms of quality, even with Bordeaux. The big loser is supposed to be Australia, as it would be too hot for quality winegrowing in most areas.
Dr. Edgar Müller concludes: Consequential changes in the cultivation technique as mentioned above can mitigate the effects of climate change in many ways. If the skeptical forecasts of the climate scientists are correct, our children, but at the latest our grandchildren, will cultivate a vineyard that differs significantly from today's cultivation technology. This applies mglw. also for grape varieties and locations. Notwithstanding the considerable problems, German winegrowing would still be on the winners' side compared to other major winegrowing regions in Europe today. The problems that would be in our house, would be well to master. For large growing regions, such as central Spain, where viticulture already reaches its limits due to the lack of water, the prospects are much gloomier. However, the viticultural problems of climate change would still be marginal compared to the possible global problems.
No one can say with certainty whether the optimists or the skeptics are right in the discussion about the expected changes. Everyone should know, however, that today's generation, out of responsibility to future generations, can not afford the luxury of waiting patiently to let our grandchildren know who was right. They would probably have little understanding if the current opportunities for climate protection, such as through energy conservation or alternative energy, are largely wasted, because many people see it as an unreasonable financial burden or constriction of personal development. If the skeptical forecasts came in, these restrictions or burdens would be ridiculous compared to the problems of our descendants (end of quote).
The congress created in 2006 Climate Change and Wine is dedicated to the problem area. With the threat of biodiversity due to climate change is the term often used biodiversity originated in the Organic viticulture plays an important role. The classification of the European wine regions in accordance with climatic conditions growing zones in relation to Weinbauwürdigkeit will probably have to change as a result of climate change. From the mid-1990s is (also) by the fact of global Kliamwandels Cool Climate Winegrowing has become popular, under which viticulture is understood in higher areas with continental climatic conditions. See also below globalization and pollution,
Source: Dr. med. Edgar Müller from DLR Rheinhessen-Nahe-Hunsrück