Term for mostly old rhyming sayings about the Weather and the consequences for agriculture, which are usually formulated as positive or negative. Predictions are made based on past experience. They have been created over centuries through close observation of natural events and have been passed on from generation to generation. The forecasts often relate to a so-called lost day. Lost days (also known as lurtage days) are fixed days in the calendar which, according to old popular belief, make it possible to make predictions about the weather conditions in the following weeks, months and, less often, also in the coming year, determine the best time for various agricultural activities (such as sowing or harvesting) and also forecast the Allow expected harvest.
The term "lost day" is derived from "Los", an old word for "fate". When determining the lost days, one often orientated oneself on the name days or memorial days (mostly days of death) of Catholic saints. An example is St. Gallus, in which the vintage should have ended (October 16). This day was also the end of temporary work for the Weingarten guardian, The seriousness or correctness of farmers' rules has always been questioned, what is documented with sayings like "If the cock crows on the manure, the weather changes - or it stays as it is" . Statistical studies in the 1990s showed an astonishingly high degree of accuracy, taking into account the area of origin of the respective farmers' rule. If one takes into account the date shift of ten days resulting from the introduction of the Gregorian calendar in 1582, followers believe that the degree of reliability even increases.
However, the scientific explanation for the high accuracy of the lost days is provided by the large-scale weather conditions, which become apparent early on or are likely to return annually. The lost days only show statistical relationships. The weather is not based on them, there is no causal connection. The probability is between 60 and 90% for individual lost days. On the other hand, weather forecasts for the next week are only over 50%. The reason also lies in the fact that in the first case often only very general 50:50 statements (raining, not raining), in the second case, however, far more complex predictions are made. Scientifically, the peasant rules are the area of Esoteric assigned.
In viticulture there are also numerous farmers' rules or lost days. These do not necessarily have to conform to the rules for general agriculture. Because rain at the time of the harvest, for example, is undesirable for the winegrower, but can certainly be an advantage for a farmer who grows other crops. One example is the saying: “September rain - blessing the farmer, poison to the winegrower when he hits it.” It is striking that grain and wine often have a “common fate”. And now 100 winegrower rules / lost days from January to December: